Toronto-St. Paul’s Byelection: A Crucial Test for Trudeau’s Liberal Stronghold
TORONTO, June 26, 2024 — Voters in Toronto-St. Paul’s head to the polls today in a byelection that is widely perceived as a referendum on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government. This midtown riding, a Liberal stronghold for over three decades, faces a competitive race amidst declining national support for the Liberals.
Former Liberal MP and cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett, who represented the riding for 26 years, has retired, and Leslie Church, a former Liberal staffer, is running to succeed her. Church is challenged by Conservative candidate Don Stewart, a former Bay Street worker whose entry into politics could potentially flip the riding.
Polls suggest the Liberals are experiencing some of their lowest support levels in over eight years, with Conservatives leading by double digits in national aggregates. Analysts suggest a Conservative victory in this byelection could pressure Trudeau to step down as Liberal leader. Even a marginal Conservative loss could spell trouble for Trudeau’s leadership.
Poll analyst Éric Grenier of thewrit.ca commented, “If we see a narrow win for the Liberals, it still indicates a shift towards a significant majority for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.” David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, believes the Liberals need at least a 10-point victory to provide Trudeau a credible path forward.
The high stakes of this byelection have mobilized significant support from Trudeau and his cabinet, with at least 13 ministers campaigning in Toronto-St. Paul’s for Church. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland emphasized the importance of the race, stating, “We are taking nothing for granted. The whole team is there with her … and we’re going to keep on working until the last minute.”
Historically, Toronto-St. Paul’s has been one of the safest Liberal ridings, even during the party’s worst performance in 2011. However, the current political climate and national trends could make this byelection a pivotal moment for Trudeau and the Liberal Party.
As the votes are cast and the results awaited, all eyes are on Toronto-St. Paul’s to gauge the political future of Canada’s leadership.
Stay tuned for updates as we follow the developments in this crucial byelection.
