Critical Test for Trudeau in Upcoming Byelection

The upcoming federal byelection in Toronto-St. Paul’s on June 24 carries significant implications for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party. Political analyst Nik Nanos suggests that this race could serve as a referendum on the current government, with potential repercussions for Trudeau’s leadership.

“This byelection is critical because we’re nearing the next general election,” Nanos said on CTV News’ Trend Line. “If the results are close, it could cause unease within the Liberal caucus, raising questions about Trudeau’s future.”

Toronto-St. Paul’s is a long-standing Liberal stronghold within the party’s Toronto fortress. However, with Trudeau’s national and personal polling numbers in decline, a substantial loss of support here could trigger broader discussions about his leadership and potential successors.

Despite ongoing speculation, Trudeau has consistently denied any intention to step down before the next federal election. Still, Nanos believes a strong performance in the byelection could quell the leadership debate, while a poor showing might amplify it.

The seat, held by the Liberals for over three decades, became vacant when Carolyn Bennett stepped down earlier this year to become Canada’s ambassador to Denmark. Bennett won the seat in 2021 with 49.2% of the vote, a narrower margin than previous years, indicating shifting dynamics in the riding.

Leslie Church, former chief of staff to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, is running to maintain the Liberal hold. The Conservative candidate, Don Stewart, an employee at the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, and NDP candidate Amrit Parhar, a community organizer, present formidable challenges. The Greens are represented by Christian Cullis, a political operations professional.

The byelection has seen intense campaigning from both major parties. Trudeau, Freeland, and several high-ranking Liberals have been actively supporting Church, emphasizing her role as a progressive advocate. Conversely, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders have bolstered Stewart’s campaign, signaling their belief in a competitive race.

“Workers here are frustrated with the current government’s policies,” Poilievre stated during a campaign stop. Nanos noted that the Conservatives wouldn’t invest heavily in the riding without confidence in a strong performance.

The outcome in Toronto-St. Paul’s could influence the broader political landscape, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area’s suburbs, where Conservative gains could be amplified.

Nanos is also monitoring NDP support, which has declined in previous byelections, often benefiting the Liberals at the last minute. Trudeau will likely hope for a similar trend in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

Advance polls run from June 14 to June 17, with the main election day on June 24. Voters will encounter the longest ballot in federal election history, featuring 84 candidates. This unprecedented number is part of an effort by the “Longest Ballot Committee” to encourage voter reflection on democratic processes.

The Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection is more than a local contest; it’s a critical test for Trudeau’s Liberals as they prepare for the next federal election. The results could either solidify Trudeau’s leadership or intensify discussions about his future. With high-profile campaigns and record-breaking candidate numbers, all eyes are on this pivotal race.